Will the Kerry Campaign play the Spoiler?

It has become more evident as John Kerry's number fall in NH, that the Kerry campaign plans to focus more on Iowa for a strong 2nd place finish to juvinate his campaign.

I don't think its possible for the Kerry campaign to come back at this point, but you never know with politics.  Kerry could however gain quite a bit of ground in Iowa.

Now if he does this, that most likely means that Dean will loose some support in Iowa.  Everyone knows now the all to open frustration within the Kerry campaign over Deans success, and I believe Dean will likely be Kerry's main target up until election day.  I don't think Kerry has yet really gone of on Gephadt, certainly not like the attacks hes posed at Dean.

Could it be that Kerry's small gain in Iowa could play the spoiler for Dean in Iowa.  I've always believed that if Dean lost Iowa, his campaign would loose a lot of credibility.  A win in NH is almost guaranteed, and I believe some candidate will gain in the polls there, so the 2nd place winner will likely recieve the benifit of great press while Dean could face the questions of why his lead shrunk.  For that reason, I think Dean needs the win in Iowa almost as bad as Gephardt.

This however could all prove to be wrong, because Dean is one of the few candidates really running a national campaign (with strong suppport in California and Texas).  This also leaves out the possibility of a Clark or Edwards surge.

•  Re: Will the Kerry Campaign play the Spoiler?

  Unless this becomes Kerry's first successful campaign reinvention, this is worse news for Kerry than it is for Dean.

  by Michael D on Fri Dec 05, 2003 at 11:36:44 AM PDT

•  Re: Will the Kerry Campaign play the Spoiler?

  I don't think it's fair to label anyone running for the democratic nomination a "spoiler" this early in the season.  Perhaps John Kerry's message is resonating with the people in Iowa--what's wrong with that?  Every candidate has the right to make his/her best case and see how many people prefer him/her to be president.

  I'll only call Kerry a spoiler if he starts running anti-Dean (or anti-anyone else) ads.  (And to clarify: An add that says "We need a candidate with military experience" is not anti-Dean.  An ad that says "Dean said he wants to destroy medicare" is anti-Dean.)

  by Go Vegetarian on Fri Dec 05, 2003 at 12:13:36 PM PDT

  •  Re: Will the Kerry Campaign play the Spoiler?

    Sorry, should have used a better word. I meant spoiler in the sense that his support could take away just enough to stop Dean from defeating Gephardt in Iowa, not as Kerry is being a brat or something like that.

    poor wording on my part.  sorry bout that

    by NickC on Fri Dec 05, 2003 at 01:58:15 PM PDT

•  Re: Will the Kerry Campaign play the Spoiler?

  The real question is what Kerry supporters do when they don't reach the 15% minimum at individual caucuses.

  Do they move to Gephardt, hoping to deal a blow to Dean, yet building up Gephardt in the Anyone-But-Dean role that Kerry also aspires to?

  Do they move to Dean, who may share more of their positions than the other candidates? Do they move to Clark, who may be closer to their perceptions of electability? Do they not vote?

  by RonZ on Fri Dec 05, 2003 at 12:18:13 PM PDT

  •  Not Clark

    I don't think disillusioned Kerry supporters will go to Clark, since he's not participating in the caucuses anyway.  In fact, Clark may indeed be on Iowa's sh_t list both now and in the general election (it is possibly a swing state) because he looks like he's abandoning it.

    by Kaushansky on Fri Dec 05, 2003 at 12:20:19 PM PDT

    •  Re: Not Clark

      rumor has it (from the Note a couple of days back) that Clark is trying to quitely crawl back into the Iowa race.  Problem is he can't just do it visibly because it will look like hes waffleing again.  We'll know for sure if he starts traveling there more and puts up an ad.

      by NickC on Fri Dec 05, 2003 at 02:03:35 PM PDT

•  Re: Will the Kerry Campaign play the Spoiler?

  No "may be" about it. I know a bunch of Iowans (i lived there for 15 years), and they're uniformly furious at Clark. People i know who liked him dropped him like a hot potato - in part for the insult, and in part because they thought it showed poor judgement.

  As for Kerry... reinventing himself hasn't worked before. Attacking Dean hasn't worked before. He's just going to keep dropping in Iowa.

  The one i expect to do surprisingly well in Iowa is Kucinich. He's not strong in rural areas, but he's well liked in liberal college towns - Iowa City, Ames, and Cedar Falls. I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull third place out of Iowa.

  by Radical Middle on Fri Dec 05, 2003 at 12:47:29 PM PDT

  •  Re: Will the Kerry Campaign play the Spoiler?

    Actually Kerry has made some small gains in Iowa recently.  Its NH were he is dropping.

    by NickC on Fri Dec 05, 2003 at 01:59:35 PM PDT

  •  Re: Will the Kerry Campaign play the Spoiler?

    Thats a good point.  I wonder how well Kucinich will do.  I've always thought that his supporters would lean Dean realizing that Kucinich can't win, but his supporters are more idealistic, so that might not happen.  They will come out in numbers though.

    by NickC on Fri Dec 05, 2003 at 02:00:53 PM PDT